Aviation Decision Making

040-03-03Pablo Asensio Martínez2026-04-011 min

Decision Making Models

Structured methods to solve problems under pressure.

FOR-DEC

  1. F (Facts): What is happening?
  2. O (Options): What can we do? (Hold, Divert, Continue).
  3. R (Risks/Benefits): Evaluate each option.
  4. D (Decide): Choose the best option.
  5. E (Execute): Do it.
  6. C (Check): Is it working? (Review loop).

DODAR

Diagnosis, Options, Decision, Assign tasks, Review.

Cognitive Biases

Cognitive bias codex

Mental shortcuts (Heuristics) that can lead to errors.

  • Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that confirms our hypothesis and ignoring evidence that contradicts it.
    • Example: Ignoring a "Gear Unsafe" light because you "know" you put the gear down.
  • Sunk Cost Fallacy (Get-there-itis): Continuing a course of action because of resources already invested (time, fuel), even when it's unsafe.
  • Groupthink: Desire for harmony overrides realistic appraisal of alternatives.
  • Expectation Bias: Seeing what you expect to see.
Written and reviewed by

Pablo Asensio · 2026-04-01

Aeronautical engineer. Passed the thirteen EASA ATPL(A) theoretical knowledge exams studying from these very notes. Writes and reviews each topic against the Part-FCL Learning Objectives.

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